Local Forecast Discussion

FXUS65 KPIH 190347 
  AFDPIH 
   
  AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID 
  947 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013 
   
  .UPDATE...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DEVELOPED THIS EVENING NEAR 
  MOUNTAIN HOME WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 56 MPH. WINDS HAVE SLOWED 
  DOWN SOME THE PAST HOUR BUT THE 00Z NAM12 MODEL SUGGEST BOUNDARY 
  LAYER WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KTS OVER WESTERN CASSIA COUNTY BETWEEN 
  MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT 8 AM WEDNESDAY. THE WEST WIND DIRECTION IS 
  OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS TO CHANNEL THROUGH THE TERRAIN 
  AND BE FELT ON INTERSTATE 84 BETWEEN IDAHOME AND THE INTERSTATE 86 
  JUNCTION. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OVER NIGHT HOURS. 
  ALSO...DROPPED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THE REST OF TONIGHT 
  ALONG THE IDAHO AND WYOMING BORDER. RS 
   
  && 
   
  .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013/  
   
  ..DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT 
  AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FCST AREA WED THRU FRI. 
  SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL 
  MTNS AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS 
  EXPECTED TO PASS THRU EASTEREN ID BY LATE WED MORN. THIS WILL 
  BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS FOR WED AFTN AND 
  EVE. NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES WINDS INTO THE ADVISORY LEVEL...WHILE THE 
  GFS FALLS SHORT. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WINDS AND THE 
  COLD ADVECTION...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MID 
  AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN.  
   
  SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS INTO WED 
  EVE. PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN 
  THE BURN AREAS IN NORTHERN CUSTER CO. ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY 
  POP UP WED AFTN/EVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. AT THIS TIME... 
  IT LOOKS LIKE THE SNAKE PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL REMAIN 
  DRY. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WED AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES 
  SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE 
  NORTHERN MTNS INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OUT 
  OF ID. THE NAM MOVES THE LOW OUT MUCH SOONER...BUT THE GFS AND THE 
  ECMWF SAY OTHERWISE. A MINOR UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BY 
  SAT EVE...AND REMAINS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FLATTENING INTO MORE 
  ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDTIONS AND WARMER TEMPS SAT 
  AND SUN...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN PAC MOISTURE. THIS 
  WILL INCREAST THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP MON THRU TUE IN THE CENTRAL 
  MTNS. HEDGES 
   
  AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT   
  ISOLATED POCKETS OF LATE AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER HIGHER  
  TERRAIN...AND WIND GUSTS MAY AGAIN BE ERRATIC AND STRONG WITH  
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40KTS. MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE  
  CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION  
  OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR  
  PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z. DSH 
   
  FIRE WEATHER... 
  FIRE WEATHER...PACNW UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT INTO  
  WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF DRY CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
  OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION  
  OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE CENTRAL  
  MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON  
  WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CORRESPONDING RISE IN  
  DAYTIME HUMIDITY. DSH 
   
  && 
   
  .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
  WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ020-021. 
   
  WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ022. 
   
  &&

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion